Essays on the international market diffusion of electric vehicles : an assessment of government incentives

  • Aufsätze über die internationale Marktdiffusion von Elektrofahrzeugen: Eine Analyse der staatlichen Anreize

Fluchs, Sarah; Lorz, Jens Oliver (Thesis advisor); Madlener, Reinhard (Thesis advisor)

Aachen (2020)
Dissertation / PhD Thesis

Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule, 2020


The overall objective of this dissertation is to evaluate factors that influence BEV and PHEV market penetration in an international context in order to better understand the purchasing process and thus consumers' motivations for buying EVs as well as to identify economic characteristics that favor EV adoption. The final goal is the derivation of industrial and political measures both on national and consumer levels for a global market penetration of electric vehicles. In this context, not only the impact on market shares as such is examined but also the factors influencing the vehicles' diffusion speed. The main focus is set on the specific impact of government incentives. I approach this objective from different angles: The first paper is an extensive literature review which summarizes a wide range of research. It identifies common grounds and compliance but also reveals contradicting results mostly caused by different research designs or objects such as different regions or time periods under investigation. The main contribution of this paper is the identification of factors significantly influencing EV or HEV market shares, which research agrees upon. It thus sets the basis for the following empirical papers with regard to the selection of variables that will be studied for their impact on EV adoption. The second paper empirically investigates the impact of government incentives on BEV and PHEV adoption in China and the Netherlands as examples of two very unequal countries with different government approaches. The third paper focuses on the consumer perspective and empirically studies the purchasing process for BEVs and PHEVs. It finds national differences in these purchasing processes and motives as well as certain factors that impact the purchasing probability for different drive types. The fourth paper takes a technology diffusion model as a basis to predict the diffusion processes of BEVs in several countries. Detecting different adoption patterns, it aims at explaining the differences in diffusion speeds in a second step.